Messages

[One:]

'I wouldn't proclaim so confidently that 2018 is going to be a sideways year, all indications barring any serious unexpected regulation say it's going to be the biggest year of growth yet.' https://www.reddit.com/message/inbox/

One: the spike of late 2013 resulted in a government backlash that pushed crypto prices down for over 20 months.

Could that happen again?

Well, the 'support base' of cryptos is enormously larger than it was in late 2013, and that's a very positive factor. But the number of ICO scams, and the way in which it is transpiring that other ICOs contravened various laws, and the enormous amount of capital that has flowed in, have given governments reason (according to their values . . . ) to act, and that action is underway: Europe, India, China, the U.S., Australia, South Korea, and other places.

Two: how stabilizing a factor will the Wall-Street futures be? Is it so that they can profit from shorting Bitcoin? and later, presumably, other cryptos? Wall Street wants to tame cryptos, and they have the capital to try to. And we're going to see how it all goes this year.

Three: the 'vapour cap' thing has long been a problem; but has the enormously more complex nature of cryptos made it even worse? The millions and millions of newcomers are getting hard lessons in how things go on Planet Kryptos. What if all these newcomers begin to scrach and sniff?           

Let's watch and wait.

https://blogs.thomsonreuters.com/answerson/world-cryptocurrencies-country/

The list of 'the state of play' in various countries is good information, quite an interesting read.

'With the Italian public increasingly disenchanted with the euro, the country's parliamentary election in March could lead to the introduction of a "new lira" as a parallel currency.'           
https://www.wikitribune.com/story/2018/01/11/current_affairs/italy-could-start-new-parallel-currency-after-upcoming-election/34349/

Today, a brief tour of the fantastic shift in the reality/range of money in the world in recent decades:

the Euro is a supra-national currency (and every crypto geek needs to know what 'supra-national' means).

I recall this from earlier days of the Eurozone crisis: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/may/27/ireland-euro-uncertainty-reviving-punts

There are a range of local currencies like the Brixton pound: http://brixtonpound.org/what

You may think that gold ETFs are a scam – I sure do! – but they are also a quite new form of 'currency' – working-class folks weren't trading these things in 1970 in the country town I grew up in!

Then there's the IMF's 'SDR's.

The Caribbean's pegged-fiat-token is (tiny but) multi-national: http://bitcoinagile.com/5A558B/bitt-launches-caribbeans-first-blockchain-based-digital-money_stream

And now the petro-yuan, an open affront to U.S. dollar hegemony.

And the Venezuelan/supranational petro-currency disaster-in-the-making: http://www.zdnet.com/article/venezuela-asks-other-countries-to-adopt-oil-backed-cryptocurrency/

And 5,000 cryptos/a range of Ether tokens.

[What's my point here?]

'Bank Indonesia has now joined forces with local police to prevent bitcoin transactions where they are most likely to take place – in Bali.'         

https://news.bitcoin.com/crackdown-on-bitcoin-hits-businesses-in-bali/

Something rather formal today:

you can follow through history the course of various political movements, and see them shift from some 'pure beginning' to being the sock puppets of their opponents. I remember the debate, in the early 1970's, about the potential of . . . the television! The argument was that television had tremendous potential as an instrument of education.

It just didn't work out that way . . .

What's my point here?

The 'pure' idea of Bicoin – that is, non-Government-issued currency – is being 'infiltrated' and cheapened – 'co-opted' – very fast at this point. We got e-fiats (Government 'cryptos') incoming. We got a tsunami of regulation incoming. Got the Wall Street Bitcoin-futures squid clamped on our face.

Meanwhile, though, Wall Street – the global economy – is ripe for a whoopsie, and that will swing the odds in our favour. But whatever happens, cryptos – certainly one as solid as GRS – will persevere.

Wooooooo!

Now is a good time to trade on our lower-volume exchanges: Livecoin, Coin Exchange, Cryptopia.

Check the volumes. Check the spreads. Tip-toe around. You could get bargains/make profit.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/groestlcoin/

Today, readers, plain and simple:

2018 is gonna be IMHO rather like 2014: a year of 'sideways.' We're down 35% from December highs.

EDIT: Ooooh!! 50%.

Governments are swinging at us with a big stick.

Big deal!

Scrape up all the fiat you can, and buy in on the dips. Trade hard. Work with the community. Post useful content not moon lambo nonsense.

Cryptos are here to stay. Last year, we saw $-cap rise from thirty or forty Billion to over seven hundred. The next wave of capital will come. Maybe later this year. Maybe in 2019.

J u s t     w a i t.

'Is the ECB raising rates from record lows? Nope. Has QE ended? Nope. QE continues to run at $30B Euro a month and rates remain in full panic mode. Not what one would've expected 8 years ago following a return to full employment. Stimulus programs & interventions used to be methods of crisis management now they have become permanent fixtures in global economies. Why? Because this is what it takes.'

https://northmantrader.com/2018/01/07/2018-market-outlook/

My point here is that although I have failed dismally in calling the time-frame there are only so many ways in which reality can be staved off — though I urge everyone to get a grasp of 'MMT' (what the Japanese are toying with) because it takes the moving-of-the-goal-posts business to a whole nooo level!!

Meanwhile, bear in mind, campers, a thing that is much clearer to the HODLers of Planet Krypto:

yes, an almost open-ended amount of rubbish cyrptos can and will and have been launched -- and a great deal of greedy people will lose a great deal of money on those -- but if every one who is reading here today sticks with established cryptos (I suspect POWs), and you are still reading here in 2020 or 2022, you will be doing very very well.

'If you have a wallet to own Bitcoins, that company has the same obligation as a bank to know [you].'

I wonder what company that would be?

https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-treasury-secretary-addresses-anonymity-sanctions-and-digital-currencies


And: 'Mnuchin also addressed the potential that countries may use digital currencies to skirt existing financial sanctions.' ibid

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/north-korea-hackers-step-up-bitcoin-attacks-amid-rising-tensions


It's tempting to dismiss Mnuchin and Company as just fools. And their ignorance and shenanigans will ultimately benefit us. But it's going to be interesting!!!!

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/comments/7q7imt/why_need_to_stand_up_to_bittrex_please_please/

Yes yes. It's unpopular to criticise one's primary exchange, but some one needs to do it.

The situation at Bittrex hasn't gotten worse, but it hasn't got better.

Ceaușescu was a Communist Party Poobah for twenty-four years, but it took only eight days for public sentiment to change enough to literally put him in front of a firing squad. Historically, it is the case that regimes tend to go stretch, streetch . . . sttreeeeetchhh – SNAP!!
Now look here: https://www.coindesk.com/crypto-crackdown-talk-draws-ire-supporters-politicians-south-korea/

All over the world at present, Mr. GuvvyBankCorp is telling us that cryptos must be contained because of Things That Just Aren't True (like they're significantly funding terrorism),  or that choosing cryptos over stocks is a form of mental illness.
Remember what Ghandi said: 'First they ignore you; then they laugh at you; then they fight you; then you win.

Whatever social dis-satisfaction is presently being expressed through interest in cryptos will increase a thousand percent if the global stock market has a whoopsie. Watch this space!

[One:]

[second draft]

'I literally cannot understand how Dogecoin is still going strong . . . '

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrencies/comments/7pouv8/which_cryptocurrencies_would_you_choose_to/

There are two things here that the Moon Lambo crowd don't understand.

One: these older – established – cryptos have really solid and talented communities. Peercoin and Namecoin come immediately to mind. So does Unobtanium.
There is less chatter on the media channels of these cryptos. Many members are lurkers. But they all know the 'deep' value of the currencies to a decimal point, and they'll buy at that price, which provides a valuable 'floor' for the currency.

GRS is a member of this club.

Two: the long-term value of a welcoming community: GRS does not lack in this respect – but there is real potential for us to shine here. Even if you have never owned a single Doge, you owe something to that community, which was the first to energetically seek to connect with the outside world.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/harvard-professors-predict-bitcoin-collapse-due-to-government-regulation

'Nevertheless, he believes that central governments will eventually drive the technology out of existence.'

Hit the history books, readers; and report back to me about the percentage of nations that have experienced armed revolutions in the last hundred years.

Miron should know better. He can't comprehend – although he's supposed to be a libertarian – that a government could simply fail to do a thing. But in my lifetime, Governments have utterly failed to keep us out of stupid wars, to crush organized crime, to win the war on drugs, to win the war on terror, to police our borders, to stop the economy collapsing, or to address climate change. So having lost the trust of a generation whose greatest skill is the Net . . . they're gonna 'drive the technology out of existence'?

[But for cryptos?]

'Stock, bond, derivatives, commodity and other trades must all be reported to a repository, giving regulators a trove of data to track trades and try to spot bubbles early after failing to see the last crisis coming.

When the rules go live on Wednesday, fund managers and others must for the first time fill in a transaction report with up to 65 bits of data within 15 minutes of a trade – or risk being fined.'

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/02/eu-bankers-work-around-the-clock-ahead-of-launch-of-mifid-ii-reforms

Several thoughts here: first, this is complete twaddle. Utter nonsense. Half the bureaucrats are pretending they're concerned to prevent the next bubble. The other half is busy keeping the bubbles happening. It's like watching one guy dig a hole as another guy fills it in.

But for cryptos?

IMHO we will see plenty of craziness. I reckon the coins at the top of markets will not do so well as 'simpler' coins further down the charts. Why? Well, readers know I rarely name coins; but this time, yes:

cryptos like Ripple and Tron just aren't 'solid' -- at least until they start delivering on their many many promises.

And meanwhile, all the craziness in the legacy financial markets will keep pushing people to investigate cryptos.

https://news.bitcoin.com/maduro-issue-petros-venezuelas-oil-backed-cryptocurrency/

I assume that this will all go horribly wrong; but it represents one of the first of a phenomenon, campers -- the e-fiats. So let's watch it and others closely.

And today's entrant in the Really-Really-Bad-Ideas Competition is:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/digital-currencies-are-too-volatile-is-there-a-way-to-fix-that